Personal computers, including tablet computers have been a major driver of digital storage demand. For instance, in 2015 total HDDs for mobile and desktop computers were about 58% of the total shipped units. As a consequence, the trends for these products have a significant impact on the demand for storage devices, such as HDDs and SSDs.
I have had the pleasure to work with Stephen Daniels of the Daniels Research Group (DRG) on the analysis of electronic product trends over the last few years. Steve has contributed to a quarterly newsletter from Coughlin Associates focusing on digital storage news and trends. His analysis looks at major drivers of demand, age of current investments and sophisticated models of product shipment growth. The following material is extracted from Steve’s latest article on the “United States Computing Telecommunications Personal Device Market Forecast: 2016-2020.”
The following two figures shows history and projections for desktop, mobile and tablet total available consumer market (TAM) penetration as well as overall PC annual unit growth. The projections show negative growth in tablet PCs starting in 2015 out to 2020. There is a surprising strength in desktop PCs shipments starting in 2015 and continuing into 2018. At the same time there are projections for mobile PC unit shipment growth starting in 2016 into 2018.
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